Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.020631 0.023400 0.026409 0.029923 0.033917 0.038317 0.043534
2025-05-25 0.015839 0.019535 0.023903 0.029454 0.036328 0.044576 0.055243
2025-06-01 0.013572 0.017719 0.022909 0.029893 0.039068 0.050739 0.066763
2025-06-08 0.011735 0.016047 0.021701 0.029676 0.040670 0.055345 0.076508
2025-06-15 0.010701 0.015235 0.021425 0.030523 0.043604 0.061815 0.089236
2025-06-22 0.009300 0.013718 0.019970 0.029497 0.043717 0.064264 0.096412
2025-06-29 0.008328 0.012688 0.019064 0.029107 0.044616 0.067808 0.105395
2025-07-06 0.007356 0.011546 0.017858 0.028107 0.044442 0.069647 0.111850
2025-07-13 0.006998 0.011300 0.017968 0.029117 0.047427 0.076550 0.126858
2025-07-20 0.006618 0.010975 0.017912 0.029831 0.049972 0.082930 0.141570
2025-07-27 0.006319 0.010747 0.017980 0.030738 0.052885 0.090125 0.158279
2025-08-03 0.005844 0.010178 0.017428 0.030531 0.053864 0.094112 0.169751
2025-08-10 0.005445 0.009710 0.017021 0.030565 0.055307 0.099103 0.183652
2025-08-17 0.005004 0.009131 0.016371 0.030108 0.055831 0.102517 0.195020
2025-08-24 0.004745 0.008856 0.016232 0.030556 0.058036 0.109144 0.213024
2025-08-31 0.004417 0.008421 0.015760 0.030334 0.058945 0.113409 0.226837
2025-09-07 0.004263 0.008299 0.015859 0.031200 0.062014 0.122041 0.250111
2025-09-14 0.003884 0.007710 0.015017 0.030152 0.061199 0.122991 0.257816
2025-09-21 0.003617 0.007318 0.014525 0.029752 0.061644 0.126468 0.271067
2025-09-28 0.003306 0.006811 0.013762 0.028730 0.060709 0.127028 0.278120
2025-10-05 0.003236 0.006791 0.013979 0.029762 0.064180 0.137057 0.306751
2025-10-12 0.003138 0.006706 0.014052 0.030493 0.067062 0.146067 0.333971
2025-10-19 0.003064 0.006665 0.014212 0.031420 0.070450 0.156460 0.365336